The Gaels are the better team, plain and simple. They will dictate the pace and style of play, dominating on the boards and keeping the Commodores out of rhythm.

Saint Mary's sports one of the best two-point defenses in the country and rarely allows second-chance buckets. They rank 11th in opponent 2PT%, 10th in quick points allowed off offensive rebounds, and 1st in opponent second-chance conversion rate. The Commodores rank 130th in effective field goal percentage and don't shoot the three-ball well enough (32.5%) to stretch the Gaels' defense.

Saint Mary's hasn't been a terrific offensive team this season, but it should be efficient enough tomorrow. Vanderbilt ranks 336th in three-point defense and fouls a lot (231st in opponent FT attempt rate). The Gaels will also take advantage of second-chance scoring opportunities (2nd in offensive rebounding rate and 8th in quick points scored off offensive rebounds). 

Saint Mary's will win and cover on Friday in Cleveland!