I don't trust the Bruins. They've been inconsistent, drawing the ire of their coach, Mick Cronin. While talented, the pieces simply haven't fit together. UCLA ranks 336th in consistency, 347th in Paper Tiger Factor, and 361st in Haslametrics' Away from Home metrics. Utah State ranks 17th in offensive efficiency, relying heavily on three-balls. They knock them down, too... The Bruins encourage three-pointers, as 44.8% of their opponents' short attempts are three-balls.

The Aggies upset Saint Mary's earlier this season, winning 75-68 as 5.5-point underdogs. The Gaels' defense (8th in defensive efficiency) is superior to the Bruins (17th). I envision a similar outcome today — bet on the Aggies to win this game straight-up!