Betting Trends: The Texans are 11-7 ATS as betting underdogs under HC DeMeco Ryans and 5-0 ATS in road games with the total set between 35.5 and 42 under his direction.

Houston's performance last week vs. LA was eye-opening and I don't believe it was an aberration. CJ Stroud looked like Harry Houdini escaping the Chargers' pass rushers, making several game-changing plays. The Texans' run defense was excellent (50 yards allowed) and the secondary picked off Justin Herbert four times. This Houston defense is sixth in the NFL in Rush EPA per play allowed (-0.146) and seventh in the league in Dropback EPA per play (0.003).

The last matchup between Houston and KC was close throughout, and I believe we'll see better performances from Stroud and Joe Mixon tomorrow. Besides, I'm still not sold on the Chiefs as legit title contenders and don't trust them to cover the spread. They were 0-6 ATS as favorites of seven or more points, 3-5 ATS as home favorites, 5-7 ATS in conference games and 2-3 ATS with a rest advantage this season. Patrick Mahomes has not been a winner against the spread as a favorite of seven or more points since the start of 2020 either, compiling a 15-27 ATS record (35.7%).

Bet on the Texans at +8.5!