Duke is in a unique spot of playing a bad Florida State that they are 0-20 straight up. They have yet to beat the Seminoles and they are getting them in a weakened spot. However, as bad as the Seminoles are, they have played the stronger schedule this season and are much more battle tested. With the quarterback change, they have looked much better. Duke hasn’t played a strong team this season other than Georgia Tech who they lost to by double digits too. They beat three really bad teams in UNC, MDST and Northwestern, while UConn put up a good close fight. Those teams don’t compare to who the Seminoles have played. The Seminoles are a little better at converting on third downs versus conference opponents while Duke is 5-25 on third downs. Duke also struggled to run the ball in their last game which affected their ability to put up points and they turned over the ball. This team relies on their run game so if it’s not working, they can be beaten and their defense couldn’t stop the run either versus the Yellow Jackets. The Seminoles are decent at stopping the run game as they have more of a bend don't’ break defense. There is also such a talent difference between the two that as bad as the Seminoles seem, they are a little better than their record indicates while Duke isn’t as good as their record indicates. The Seminoles will get up in this spot to defend their record against Duke so there is value in taking the points.

Best bet: take the points with Florida State.