Nevada is a bit of an underrated team that is ahead of schedule. They just won their last game at home against a good Oregon State team, they also played a very close game with Georgia Southern and went on the road and beat San Jose State. They are 5-2 against the spread. They have a good offense and they will go up against a Fresno State defense that is not strong. Fresno State has struggled with their offense in their last few games as QB Mike Keene has given up one pick for every touchdown he has thrown. Nevada should be able to defend the pass against the Bulldogs because they do that well. Nevada has been really good at finishing their drives while Fresno State has struggled to finish theirs. The Bulldogs face a Wolf Pack team that doesn't give up explosive plays either. Fresno beat the Wolf Pack last season so Nevada is also playing with revenge. This should be a close competitive game as both can move the ball on each other but the edge goes to the home team playing with revenge and getting points. Fresno State are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games against an opponent in the Mountain West conference. The Bulldogs are 1-3 against the spread as a road favorite of 7 points or less and they are 0-2 against the spread off a home loss. Nevada is 3-1 against the spread when the line is +3 to -3. Nevada has some momentum as they have won their last two of three games and covered in their last three.

Best bet: take the points with Nevada.