Verlander has been a shell of himself since coming back from the IL. His ERA of 5.55 and WHIP of 1.39 hasn’t improved. In his last 4 starts, they have all gone over the total. In other words, he’s given up over a run per inning in his last 17 innings of work. Cleveland will get to him for plenty of runs as they have some motivation in this game. Cleveland also puts out Lively on the mound who has been really good in his last three starts with an ERA of 3.80 and a WHIP of 1.21, but has been shaky against the Astros in the past and he has an ERA of 4.53 in his last ten games. He's also susceptible to the long ball, and he faces an Astros team that is top ten in all their offensive metrics. Houston has gone over in four of their last six games while the Guardians have gone over the total in six of their last seven games versus AL West opponents. This total seems small at 8 so the value is in taking the over.

Best bet: take the Over the Total.