The Colts are 0-2 at home in a desperate situation to turn their season around. The Colts almost had a win in Week 1 but a few mishaps have stopped them from winning and they are better than what the box score shows. This is rookie Williams first road start and the Bears don't have an offense so the key to this game for the Colts is to stop the run and force Caleb to make throws where he has already been making mistakes, hasn’t shown any accuracy, and is getting sacked as he runs around on the field. The Colts need to apply the pressure on Caleb and scheme up ways to contain Swift too and that should help them get the win. Betting against road teams (Chicago) with a money line of +130 to -150, after a loss by 6 or less points against an opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half of the last game, favors the home team (Colts) by 81.3%. This according to NFL betting angles. Chicago is also 6-12 against the spread as a road underdog in the last three seasons and when they are an underdog of 7 points or less, Chicago is 2-7 against the spread. Chicago also 0-5 against the spread in the first month of the season on the road. Chicago is 2-4 against the spread in their last 6 games against Indianapolis as well. Chicago is 3-12-1 against the spread in their last 16 games played on a Sunday when playing on the road, while Indianapolis is 7-1 against the spread in their last 8 games played in week 3. This should be a close one so take the home team on the moneyline.

Best bet: take the Indianapolis Colts on the moneyline (ML).