The Pacers are coming into this game with a 3-1 lead in the series and they have been dominant in this series. They lost the 1st game of this series as Lillard went off in game 1 to carry the team at home, but the Pacers quickly adjusted as they have won the last 3 straight games in the series. They have won 2 of the last 3 games in this series by 10+ points as well. The Pacers have not been as good on the road this season while the Bucks have been much better at home, but the Bucks have struggled a lot to win games recently without Giannis in the lineup. The last game he played in was their home win against the Celtics on April 9, they are 2-5 straight up in the 7 games they have played since then without him. Now Lillard is dealing with an injury that kept him out of the last game in this series and that is not good for the Bucks as they do not have the talent or depth in their lineup to compete with the Pacers without those 2. The Bucks have struggled against the Pacers all season as well as the Pacers were 4-1 straight up against the Bucks during the regular season. The Bucks have struggled a lot against the Pacers but also against division opponents in general this season as they were only 7-14 ATS against division opponents this year. The Bucks have also been awful in this position recently as they have struggled without Giannis in the playoffs before and they have struggled when getting behind in their series as well. The Bucks are only 1-3 ATS over the last 3 seasons when trailing in a playoff series and they are 0-2 ATS when facing elimination as well. The Pacers may not have the playoff experience that the Bucks do, but this is also a watered down Bucks lineup and the Pacers are a team that has dominated the Bucks all season when they were healthy. The Pacers will cover the spread in this game.