This is an 8* TOTAL on the OVER Hawks/Heat.

Listen, the Law Of Averages is flawed in many ways, but I've always felt that lop-sided numbers/trends have a way of naturally correcting themselves. That includes over the short, the mid and the long-term.

And that's going to be the case here for this play, as all four games so far in this series have fallen UNDER the posted number. In fact for Atlanta, it's seen the total go UNDER in its other two "Play In" contests as well.

And that's important to note here as the Hawks have seen the total go OVER in seven of their last ten after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row.

The Heat have a 3-1 series lead and they'll be anxious to end this one here and now. Miami has been much more consistent throughout this series offensively, as it's posted 115, 115, 110 and 110 points over its first four games.

And I expect Miami to at least hit 110 again today. With the Hawks fighting for their playoff lives needing to match pace, expect this total to fly OVER the posted number as the game comes down the stretch.

Good luck, NP