I don't trust QB Cade Klubnik or the Tigers in this spot. Clemson sneaked into this game because Miami lost, and I believe it's going up against a much more motivated Mustangs team, as SMU is likely out of the CFP with a loss in this game due to a weaker strength of schedule than Alabama.

On top of that, numerous advantages are working in SMU's favor. Clemson's run game has declined in recent weeks, as RB Phil Mafah has totaled just 105 rushing yards in the past three games against Pitt, The Citadel and South Carolina. SMU has defended inside zone and counter concepts well this season, generating a Success Rate of at least 57% against both run concepts. The pass defense ranks top 50 in contested catches created, benefitting from a strong pass rush (11th nationally in sacks).

Offensively, the Mustangs lean on inside zone runs, as QB Kevin Jennings is a threat on designed runs and RB Brashard Smith (1,157 rushing yards, 6.0 YPC and 14 scores) is tough to stop. Clemson has struggled to defend the run this season and missed tackles have been an issue, as well. Big plays will be a concern for a Tigers defense that isn't up to par with the units of years past.

In short, I expect SMU to wear down Clemson on the ground, opening up explosive plays through the air (Mustangs' Jennings has the 7th-most explosive passing plays). On the other side of the ball, the Tigers are tough to trust given their recent struggles to run the football. With Klubnik likely to face a strong pass rush, Clemson will struggle to keep pace with the motivated Mustangs on the scoreboard.

Bet SMU -2.5 or better.